Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2016 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2016 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 54,000** 66 50-82 35 8/99 83*** 20/99
Belly River 28,000* 83 69-103 58 28/99 87*** 23/99
Waterton River 43,000* 79 63-109 50 30/99 87*** 25/99
Oldman River near Brocket 61,000* 60 33-87 9 11/99 66*** 15/99
Oldman River at Lethbridge 204,000* 65 50-80 36 18/99 65*** 14/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca