Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2002

Table 2 Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2002 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Median Probable Range as a % of Median Reasonable Minimum as % of Median Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Actual March-September 2001 Volume as a % of Median
Milk River at Western Crossing 19,600 35 16-92 12 10/63* 24
Milk River
at Milk River
32,600 34 16-91 12 10/84 24
Milk River at Eastern Crossing 38,500 33 16-93 13 11/84 21

* Western Crossing data is from 1931-95

Median is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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