Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2003

Table 4 - Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2003 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2002 Volume as a % of Average
Bow River at Banff 879,000 82 68-103 60 9/84 88
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 134,000 71 54-98 48 9/84 101
Spray River near Banff 289,000 79 63-103 58 10/84 92
Kananaskis River 338,000 81 70-106 61 16/84 117
Bow River at Calgary 1,959,000 80 63-103 56 16/84 95
Elbow River 151,000 68 55-112 44 18/84 114
Highwood River 347,000 55 41-105 32 12/84 109

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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