Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2003

Table 2 - Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2003 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30
Locations Volume
in dam3
Volume as a % of Median Probable Range as a % of Median Reasonable Minimum as % of Median Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2002
Volume as a
% of Median
Milk River at
Western Crossing
21,000 37 20-83 13 13/63* 236
Milk River
at Milk River
34,900 36 20-82 13 12/84 197
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing
41,400 35 20-84 12 11/84 184

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

* Western Crossing data is from 1931-95

Median is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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