Plains Runoff Outlook

As of February 1, 2004, spring snowmelt runoff is forecast to be below-normal to normal for Alberta's plains, with the exception of northeastern Alberta where below-normal to much-below-normal runoff is expected, and the Cypress Hills where normal to above-normal runoff is expected (Figure 1). Average to above-average snowpack exists in most of the province (Figure 2), however soil moisture is generally much-below-average (except the Cold Lake and Lloydminster regions, where soil moisture is average) (Figure 3).

Routine snow surveys to monitor snowpack on the plains begin in late February. Since it is still early in the runoff forecasting season, further weather conditions leading up to spring could also change this forecast considerably. These forecasts assume a typical spring melt occurs; a late spring could mean higher runoff. Check the Forecaster's Comments on the department website throughout the month for the most current conditions.