Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2004

Table 1 - Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2004 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2004
Locations Volume
in dam3 		Volume as a % of Median Probable Range as a % of Median Reasonable Minimum as % of Median Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2003
Volume as a
% of Median
Milk River at
Western Crossing 		30,500 56 31-98 20 22/70* 62
Milk River
at Milk River 		50,600 53 29-93 19 21/91 64
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing 		63,300 55 30-96 20 22/91 70

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

* Western Crossing data is from 1931-2001

Median is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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