Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2004

Milk River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Below-average to much-below-average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2004 period in the Milk River basin (Table 1). Precipitation in the basin this winter has been below-normal, and soil moisture conditions are extremely dry. Current forecasts in the basin range from 53 to 56% of the median, 6 to 15% less than volumes recorded during the March through September 2003 period and approximately double those recorded in 2001. Forecasted volumes are 2 to 3% higher than last month's. For the Milk River at Milk River, current forecasted values for the March to September 2003 period would rank 21st lowest in 91 years of record (1912-2001).

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