Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2004

Table 5 - Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2004 - Red Deer River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2004
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2003 Volume as a % of Average
Red Deer River
at Dickson Dam
807,000 86 70-120 61 38/91 98
Red Deer River
at Red Deer
1,113,000 85 58-129 52 40/91 98

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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