Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2005

Table 6 - Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2005 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2005
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Actual March-September 2004 Volume as a % of Average
Lake Abraham Inflow 2,175,000 101 92-117 86 16/30* 103
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,342,000 94 77-126 66 18/41** 88
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 5,404,000 92 77-111 71 39/91 79

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

* Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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