Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
February 2006
Table 4 - Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2006 - Oldman River Basin
(Natural Flows)
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Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2006
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Locations
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Volume in dam3
|
Volume as a % of Average
|
Probable Range as a % of Average
|
Reasonable Minimum as % of Average
|
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest)
|
Recorded March-September 2005 Volume as a % of Average
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|
St. Mary River
|
702,000*
|
94
|
79-119
|
59
|
39/91
|
77
|
|
Belly River
|
229,000
|
94
|
76-119
|
66
|
34/91
|
90
|
|
Waterton River
|
578,000
|
95
|
74-120
|
62
|
41/91
|
85
|
|
Oldman River near Brocket
|
1,063,000
|
98
|
75-122
|
57
|
47/91
|
132
|
|
Oldman River at Lethbridge
|
2,663,000
|
89
|
68-117
|
54
|
40/91
|
106
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| Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically |
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* - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001
NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will
fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be
less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that
the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may
vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.
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