Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2007

Table 6 - Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2007 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2007
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Actual March-September 2006 Volume as a % of Average
Lake Abraham Inflow 2,207,000 103 94-111 90 18/30* 101
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,510,000 105 82-127 70 23/41** 63
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 5,958,000 102 86-118 74 52/91 76
Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically


* Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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