Water Supply Outlook February 2014
Updated: February 7, 2014
Mountain runoff forecasts (natural volumes for March to September 2014)
Milk River basin- Average for Milk River at Western Crossing
- Below average for Milk River at Milk River and Milk River at Eastern Crossing
- Slightly below average for the St. Mary River and Belly River
- Below average for the Waterton River, Oldman River near Brocket and Oldman River at Lethbridge
- Slightly below average
- Slightly above average for the Red Deer River at Dickson Dam
- Average for the Red Deer River at Red Deer
- Slightly below average for the Bighorn Reservoir
- Average for the Brazeau Reservoir and North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton
Precipitation can have a major impact on water supply between now and the end of September. The forecasts above assume that precipitation over the remainder of the winter period and through the summer will be normal. The range of possible precipitation scenarios is large however, and as a result, probable range forecasts and a minimal precipitation forecast of natural runoff volume are also provided for each individual basin. Since more information becomes known over time, forecast ranges will narrow. Streamflow volume forecasts are updated monthly from February to May, and again in July.
Check our Forecaster's Comments throughout the month for updated information regarding runoff conditions.
Mountain snowpack
Snow accumulations measured in the mountains as of February 1, 2014:
- Oldman River basin: ranging from 79 to 174 % of normal
- Bow River basin: ranging from 82 to 165% of normal
- Red Deer, North Saskatchewan, Athabasca River basins: ranging from 81 to 91% of normal in the Athabasca River basin and ranging from 80 to 220% of normal in the North Sasakchewan River basin
- Upper Peace River basin in British Columbia: as indicated in British Columbia's Snowpack and Water Supply Outlook
Mountain snowpack is an important source of water supply to reservoirs in the spring. Accumulation at this time of year typically accounts for nearly two-thirds of the seasonal total.
Plains snowpack
- Snow course measurements were taken in late-January in the Cypress Hills. Detailed information on plains area snowpack will be available in March as snow course measurements will be conducted near the start of the month.
- Environment Canada map of satellite estimation of plains snow water equivalent (SWE) as of February 4, 2014 is shown here.
- Alberta Agriculture publishes maps of modelled plains snow accumulations and accumulations as compared to normal.
Precipitation
Contoured maps of precipitation amounts and as a percent of normal for the past month and for current and recent seasons are available here. Maps of precipitation amounts for the most recent day, week and month to date are available here.
Soil Moisture
Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Modelled soil moisture compared to average as of January 31, 2014 is available here.
Long Lead Precipitation Outlooks
Environment Canada (issued on January 31, 2014): normal temperature for southern Alberta and below normal temperature for the rest of the province and normal precipitation for most of Alberta during the February to April 2014 period.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (issued on January 16, 2014): An equal chance of below normal, normal or above normal temperature and precipitation in Alberta except for below normal temperature for the southeast corner of Alberta for February through April 2014.
Climate indicators: The NOAA reported on February 6, 2014 that ENSO-neutral condition is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.
Note that forecasting weather for such a long time period into the future is very difficult, and so the historical accuracy has been variable, dependent on location and time period, and is often low, more so for precipitation than temperature. Environment Canada provides an assessment of their forecast method's historical accuracy on their website.
Reservoir storage
Water storage volumes in the major irrigation and hydroelectric reservoirs of the Milk, Oldman, Bow, Red Deer North Saskatchewan, and Athabasca River basins is updated each weekday and is available in the Provincial Reservoir Storage Summary.
Questions
Background information on the Water Supply Outlook is available in Frequently Asked Questions
Media Contact:
Communications Division, Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development
Phone: (780) 427-6267
