Water Supply Outlook February 2016
Updated: February 9, 2016
Mountain runoff forecasts (natural volumes for March to September 2016)
Milk River basin- Below average for Milk River at Western Crossing, Milk River at Milk River and Milk River at Eastern Crossing
- Below average for the St. Mary River, Belly River and Waterton River
- Average for the Oldman River near Brocket and Oldman River at Lethbridge
- Average for the basin except for Elbow River, which is above average
- Average for the Red Deer River at Dickson Dam and Red Deer River at Red Deer
- Below average for the Bighorn Reservoir, Brazeau Reservoir and North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton
Precipitation can have a major impact on water supply between now and the end of September. The forecasts above assume that precipitation over the remainder of the winter period and through the summer will be normal. The range of possible precipitation scenarios is large however, and as a result, probable range forecasts and a minimal precipitation forecast of natural runoff volume are also provided for each individual basin. Since more information becomes known over time, forecast ranges will narrow. Streamflow volume forecasts are updated monthly from February to May, and again in July.
Check our Forecaster's Comments throughout the month for updated information regarding runoff conditions.
Mountain snowpack
Snow accumulations measured in the mountains as of February 1, 2016:
- Oldman River basin: generally below average with 5 sites below average to much below average and 2 sites above average
- Bow River basin: 9 sites are above average or better; 4 sites are average and 7 sites are below average or worse
- Red Deer, North Saskatchewan, Athabasca River basins: much below average to average
- Upper Peace River basin in British Columbia: as indicated in British Columbia's Snowpack and Water Supply Outlook
Note: Conditions are highly variable
Mountain snowpack is an important source of water supply to reservoirs in the spring. Accumulation at this time of year typically accounts for nearly two-thirds of the seasonal total.
Plains snowpack
- Snow course measurements were taken in mid-January in the Cypress Hills. Detailed information on plains area snowpack will be available in March as snow course measurements will be conducted near the start of the month.
- Environment Canada map of satellite estimation of plains snow water equivalent (SWE) as of February 8, 2016 is shown here.
- Alberta Agriculture publishes maps of modelled plains snow accumulations and accumulations as compared to normal.
Precipitation
Contoured maps of precipitation amounts and as a percent of normal for the past month and for current and recent seasons are available here. Maps of precipitation amounts for the most recent day, week and month to date are available here.
Soil Moisture
Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Modelled soil moisture compared to average as of January 31, 2016 is available here.
Long Lead Precipitation Outlooks
Environment Canada (issued on January 31, 2016): above normal temperature for the province. Above normal precipitation along the eastern slopes and below normal precipitation in north-eastern Alberta
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (issued on January 21, 2016): Below normal precipitation for the eastern slopes and extreme southern Alberta. Above normal temperature for Alberta for February through April 2016.
Climate indicators: The NOAA reported on January 14, 2016 that strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.
Note that forecasting weather for such a long time period into the future is very difficult, and so the historical accuracy has been variable, dependent on location and time period, and is often low, more so for precipitation than temperature. Environment Canada provides an assessment of their forecast method's historical accuracy on their website.
Reservoir storage
Water storage volumes in the major irrigation and hydroelectric reservoirs of the Milk, Oldman, Bow, Red Deer North Saskatchewan, and Athabasca River basins is updated each weekday and is available in the Provincial Reservoir Storage Summary.
Questions
Background information on the Water Supply Outlook is available in Frequently Asked Questions
Media Contact:
Communications Division, Alberta Environment and Parks
Phone: (780) 427-8636