Bow River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2002 period in the Bow River basin and above-average runoff volumes in the Elbow and Highwood River basins (Table 4a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 93 to 121 % of average. The July 1 forecasts reflect the heavy rainfall observed in June, as the forecasts for the Elbow, Highwood and Kananaskis Rivers changed significantly from last month's forecast (13 to 26 % increase). Forecasts in the upper headwaters of the Bow River are tracking well as that area received below-normal to normal precipitation in June and therefore only minor adjustments were made to the forecast this month. Current runoff volume forecasts for this year are 21 to 65 % higher than recorded runoff volumes last summer.

The first four months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-June 2002 recorded runoff volumes being average to above-average, ranging from 91 to 134 % of average. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 4b.

Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the Bow River at Calgary would rank 42nd lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95).