Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2002

Milk River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

After receiving near record rainfall in June, much-above-average volumes are forecast for the March to September 2002 period in the Milk River basin (Table 2a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 202 to 220 % of the median. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the Milk River at Milk River would rank 75th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95). June volumes were near the largest on record and as a result, the July 1 forecasts have changed significantly from last month's forecast (increases between 125 and 159 %). Current runoff volume forecasts for this year are 178 to 196 % higher than recorded runoff volumes last summer.

The first four months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-June 2002 recorded runoff volumes being near the highest on record, ranging from 201 to 222 % of median. Preliminary data indicates that the recorded volume (March to June 2002) at the Milk River at Milk River would rank eighth highest on record. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 2b.

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