Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2002

Table 5b - Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2002 - Red Deer River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Red Deer River
at Dickson Dam
396,000* 87 51-118 44 41/84 76** 21/84
Red Deer River
at Red Deer
434,000* 77 53-111 39 40/84 69** 25/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** Recorded 2002 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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