Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2003

Table 4a Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2003 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2003
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2002 Volume as a % of Average
Bow River at Banff 1,017,000 95 89-102 85 34/85 89
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 210,000 111 103-128 93 60/85 101
Spray River near Banff 327,000 89 80-99 79 29/85 92
Kananaskis River 375,000 91 80-110 77 30/85 117
Bow River at Calgary 2,302,000 94 83-106 76 38/85 95
Elbow River 188,000 85 77-92 74 34/85 113
Highwood River 460,000 73 66-87 65 27/85 109

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Click here to see the table containing the remaining forecast for the season along with the recorded volume to date

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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