Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2004

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2004 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 506,000* 90 85-106 74 27/91 79** 15/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 80,200* 91 76-125 72 40/91 94** 45/91
Spray River near Banff 155,000* 88 77-114 73 33/91 89** 31/91
Kananaskis River 189,000* 92 78-120 73 36/91 79** 19/91
Bow River at Calgary 1,110,000* 90 77-112 68 31/91 83** 21/91
Elbow River 71,800* 79 68-104 57 35/91 70** 23/91
Highwood River 149,000* 76 51-107 46 44/91 54** 15/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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