Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2004

Table 2b - Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2004 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3
Volume as a
% of Median
Probable Range as a % of Median Reasonable Minimum as
% of Median
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2004 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing
3,180* 61 40-97 18 28/72** 36*** 12/70**
Milk River
at Milk River
7,780* 72 51-100 33 26/91 31*** 12/91
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing
9,440* 73 51-95 29 32/91 34*** 15/91

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Western Crossing data is from 1931-2001

*** Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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