Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2004

Milk River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Much-below-average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2004 period in the Milk River basin (Table 2a). July 1 forecasts in the basin range from 34 to 39% of the median, a decrease of 3 to 5% of median since last month's forecasts. Current forecasts rank from 13th to 16th lowest on record (70 to 91 years).

The first four months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-June 2004 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 31 to 36% of average, which is much-below-average, ranking from 12th to 15th lowest on record. Recorded volume data is preliminary and is subject to change. Current volumes represent approximately three-quarters or more of the total volumes forecasted. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 2b. Below-average runoff is forecasted for the July through September 2004 period.

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