Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2004

Table 3b - Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2004 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 191,000** 80 64-113 56 31/91 70*** 14/91
Belly River 70,600* 86 73-122 62 38/91 86*** 26/91
Waterton River 123,000* 76 62-113 53 32/91 70*** 17/91
Oldman River near Brocket 208,000* 81 60-127 48 38/91 58*** 14/91
Oldman River at Lethbridge 613,000* 75 57-115 48 33/91 63*** 13/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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