Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2004

Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of July 1, 2004, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2004 period are forecast to be below-average at Dickson Dam, and below to much below average at Red Deer (Table 5a). The current forecasted volumes for the March to September 2004 period for the Red Deer River basin are 1 to 5% lower than last month's, and 21 to 31% lower than the volumes recorded over the same time period last year. Current forecasted volume at Red Deer would rank 26th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).

The first four months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-June 2004 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 54 to 70% of average, which is below to much-below-average, ranking from eleventh to fifteenth lowest on record. Recorded volume data is preliminary, and is subject to change. Current volumes represent approximately one-half of the total volumes forecasted. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b. Below-average to average natural runoff is forecasted for the July through September 2004 period.

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