Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2006

Table 7b - Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2006 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2006 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2006 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,314,000* 94 84-99 80 17/43** 114**** 23/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 679,000* 82 71-112 61 16/44*** 70**** 7/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 2,833,000* 88 76-95 68 37/91 77**** 23/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data
**** Recorded 2006 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions Jun vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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