Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2009

Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2009 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2009 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2009 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 508,000* 90 79-101 62 28/91 73** 5/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 75,500* 86 73-108 58 34/91 82** 28/91
Spray River near Banff 141,000* 80 67-101 63 20/91 82** 17/91
Kananaskis River 156,000* 76 71-96 62 15/91 70** 11/91
Bow River at Calgary 976,000* 79 70-98 58 19/91 73** 10/91
Elbow River 66,000* 73 65-90 54 24/91 76** 30/91
Highwood River 112,000* 57 46-91 40 24/91 63** 24/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2009 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2009 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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