Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2009

Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2009 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2009 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2009 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,234,000* 88 86-93 80 13/43** 77**** 2/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 513,000* 62 56-80 51 5/44*** 57**** 1/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 2,600,000* 81 72-93 67 25/91 57**** 5/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2009 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Lake Abraham is compared to 43 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 44 years of data

**** Recorded 2009 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca