Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2010

Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2010 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2010 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2010 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 498,000* 88 78-97 70 25/91 64** 3/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 77,100* 88 72-97 67 37/91 80** 23/91
Spray River near Banff 143,000* 82 64-89 63 24/91 68** 5/91
Kananaskis River 170,000* 83 73-93 70 23/91 72** 14/91
Bow River at Calgary 986,000* 80 69-90 63 19/91 71** 9/91
Elbow River 70,300* 76 68-96 58 35/91 80** 34/91
Highwood River 123,000* 63 46-93 43 32/91 73** 26/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2010 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2010 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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