Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2002

Table 6a - Water Supply Forecast as of June 1, 2002 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Actual March-September 2001 Volume as a % of Average
Lake Abraham Inflow 2,101,000 99 91-106 85 10/18* 83
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,303,000 91 79-112 71 11/29** 66
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 5,091,000 86 75-104 67 29/84 67

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Click here to see the table containing the remaining forecast for the season along with the recorded volume to date

* Lake Abraham is compared to 18 years of data
** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 29 years of data
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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