Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2002

Table 6b - Water Supply Forecast as of June 1, 2002 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for June 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-May 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,878,000* 96 87-104 85 13/31** 83**** 7/18
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,065,000* 96 80-123 71 15/32*** 74**** 7/29
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,068,000* 87 73-110 67 32/84 82**** 28/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** Lake Abraham is compared to 31 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 32 years of data
**** Recorded 2002 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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