Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2002

North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes (for the March to September 2002 period) are forecast to be below-average to average in the North Saskatchewan River basin (Table 6a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 86 to 99 % of average. June 1 forecasts increased 3 to 5 % compared to last month's forecast due to above-normal precipitation in May. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 29th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95). The June 1 forecasts are 16 to 25 % higher than recorded values observed over the same time period last year.

The first three months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-May 2002 recorded runoff volumes being the below-average, ranging from 74 to 83 % of average. The late spring has resulted in little depletion of the higher elevation snowpack and as a result, the remaining volume forecast (June to September period) is forecast to be average. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 6b.

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