Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2003

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of June 1, 2003 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for June 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-May 2003 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 778,000* 88 72-109 70 22/85 87** 34/85
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 122,000* 83 74-104 72 28/85 120** 68/85
Spray River near Banff 224,000* 77 68-98 66 12/85 98** 44/85
Kananaskis River 277,000* 83 74-106 72 20/85 97** 45/85
Bow River at Calgary 1,658,000* 85 66-107 61 25/85 94** 39/85
Elbow River 113,000* 71 52-113 48 28/85 107** 57/85
Highwood River 269,000* 64 43-107 38 26/85 91** 36/85

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2003 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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