Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2003

Milk River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Below-average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2003 period in the Milk River basin (Table 2a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 74 to 84% of the median, a decrease from May 1 forecasts of 6 to 8% due to below-average runoff and precipitation in May. Forecast volumes are over three times higher than those recorded in 2001 and less than half those recorded last year. For the Milk River at Milk River, current forecasted values for the March to September 2003 period would rank 25th lowest in 84 years of record (1912-95).

The first three months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-May 2003 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 85 to 104% of average. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 2b.

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