Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of June 1, 2016 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for June 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-May 2016 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 714,000* 87 82-92 79 16/99 147** 91/99
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 99,800* 73 62-88 53 15/99 102** 56/99
Spray River near Banff 254,000* 90 83-98 76 32/99 127** 85/99
Kananaskis River 278,000* 92 85-104 78 26/99 137** 89/99
Bow River at Calgary 1,604,000* 87 83-92 79 24/99 117** 76/99
Elbow River 117,000* 79 67-104 55 33/99 81** 22/99
Highwood River 276,000* 72 47-110 25 30/99 70** 18/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca