Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2002

Table 4 Water Supply Forecast as of March 1, 2002 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2001 Volume as a % of Average
Bow River at Banff 986,000 92 80-108 70 34/84 72
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 169,000 89 68-119 59 32/84 67
Spray River near Banff 330,000 90 71-119 66 30/84 55
Kananaskis River 353,000 85 70-108 64 21/84 66
Bow River at Calgary 2,194,000 90 72-111 64 27/84 66
Elbow River 174,000 79 60-108 48 29/84 64
Highwood River 443,000 70 45-106 33 26/84 49

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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