Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2002

Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes (for the March to September 2002 period) are forecast to be below-average (82% of average) for the Red Deer River at Dickson Dam and below-average to much-below-average (70% of average) for the Red Deer River at Red Deer (Table 5). Current snowpack at the higher elevations is near normal with considerably less accumulations at lower elevations. The plains area between Dickson Dam and Red Deer also has below-average snowpack. This below-average snowpack is reflected in the Red Deer at Red Deer forecast being lower percentage-wise compared to the upstream location (Dickson Dam). The March 1 forecasts are 2% higher than last month's forecast due above-normal precipitation in the headwater portion of the basin during February.

Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the Red Deer River at Red Deer would rank 26th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95). The March 1 forecasts are 18 to 20% higher than recorded values observed over the same time period last year.

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