Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2004

Table 4 - Water Supply Forecast as of March 1, 2004 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2004
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2003 Volume as a % of Average
Bow River at Banff 958,000 89 81-104 70 23/91 84
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 154,000 83 71-115 64 25/91 93
Spray River near Banff 314,000 85 72-104 66 22/91 84
Kananaskis River 346,000 85 72-108 65 24/91 80
Bow River at Calgary 2,115,000 87 73-106 64 24/91 81
Elbow River 175,000 80 62-104 49 32/91 74
Highwood River 485,000 77 48-112 41 33/91 72

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.
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