Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2004

Table 6 - Water Supply Forecast as of March 1, 2004 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2004
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Actual March-September 2003 Volume as a % of Average
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,934,000 90 83-96 80 8/30* 98
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,024,000 71 60-88 54 6/41** 77
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,729,000 81 67-91 64 18/91 91

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

* Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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