Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
March 2005
February 2005 Precipitation |
| Most of the province recorded below to much below normal precipitation for the month of February. Notable exceptions to the above are: below normal to normal in the mountains of the Bow River basin, normal in the Fort McMurray and Lloydminster areas, and normal to above normal in Peace River and the upper Red Deer River basin. Also, above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in the Red Deer-Rocky Mountain House area and extending west into the mountains of the North Saskatchewan River basin (Figure 1). February precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2. |
Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2004 to February 28, 2005) |
| Northwestern Alberta recorded above to much above normal precipitation as did a narrow band from Red Deer to Banff. The southern and central plains recorded generally much below normal precipitation. The remainder of the province recorded below normal to normal precipitation (Figure 3). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 4. |
Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2004) |
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Much above normal precipitation was recorded in a band across the province from Peace River and Jasper to Cold Lake, whereas northeastern Alberta recorded normal precipitation and the northwestern corner of the province recorded below normal precipitation. Most of southern Alberta recorded below normal to normal precipitation except in Rocky Mountain House, High River, and Claresholm where much above normal precipitation occurred, and the Drumheller, Brooks, and Medicine Hat areas where much below normal precipitation was recorded (Figure 5). Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6. Soil moisture conditions in agricultural areas of the province, as measured by Alberta Agriculture for October 31, 2004 , can be seen in Figure 7. Soil moisture generally ranges from normal to well above normal in southern and western Alberta, with the most notable exceptions being in the High Level and Edson areas, which range from below normal to extreme deficit. Much of east central Alberta is classified as having below to well below normal soil moisture. |
Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook |
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Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on March 1, 2005 for the March through May 2005 period is for below normal precipitation. Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for all but east central Alberta, where normal temperatures are expected. For the summer, June through August, preliminary forecasts are for below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures throughout Alberta. Environment Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on February 17, 2005 for March through May 2005 tend towards warm temperatures and below normal precipitation for most of southern Alberta. The NOAA is reporting that this winter's weak El Nino conditions are gradually diminishing and should end by summer. An even chance of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation and temperature is forecast for the June through August period for southern Alberta. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/. |
For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca
