Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2006

Table 5 - Water Supply Forecast as of March 1, 2006 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2006
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2005 Volume as a % of Average
Bow River at Banff 993,000 93 85-109 79 30/91 90
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 170,000 91 78-116 72 36/91 129
Spray River near Banff 353,000 96 84-119 78 39/91 107
Kananaskis River 385,000 94 86-116 75 38/91 113
Bow River at Calgary 2,271,000 94 80-113 73 37/91 111
Elbow River 205,000 94 78-134 66 50/91 143
Highwood River 573,000 92 70-127 54 43/91 197
Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically
 

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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