Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2007

February 2007 Precipitation

Above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in western and southern Alberta, while the remainder of the province recorded generally below normal to normal precipitation (Figure 1). Exceptions include small areas near Fort McMurray and between Cold Lake and Lloydminister which recorded above to much above normal precipitation, and most mountain and foothill areas which varied from much below normal to above normal. February precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.


Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2006 to February 28, 2007)

Above to much above normal precipitation has been recorded in mountain areas south of Banff, in the Cypress Hills, and the Pincher Creek, Cold Lake-Fort McMurray and Peace River-Whitecourt-Grande Cache areas. Mountain areas north of Banff and southern foothill areas recorded generally below normal to normal precipitation. Normal to above normal precipitation was recorded in the Edmonton-Red Deer corridor. Normal precipitation was recorded at High Level, while above normal precipitation was recorded at Calgary. The remainder of the province generally recorded below to much below normal precipitation (Figure 3). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in (Figure 4).


 

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2006)

Below to much below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the northern one-third of the province, the Medicine Hat-Brooks-Lethbridge area, Drumheller and in most mountain and foothill regions. Generally above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in the plains and some foothills areas of Central Alberta, and in the Cypress Hills (Figure 5). Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6. Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Soil moisture at the end of October 2006 is illustrated in Figure 7, which shows almost all of the southern half of the province ranges from normal to extremely high and most of the agricultural areas in northwestern Alberta range from below normal to extremely low.


Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on March 1, 2007 for the March through May 2007 period is for generally below normal temperatures throughout Alberta, except normal temperatures in some southern regions. Precipitation for this period is forecast to be below normal for the southern half of the province and above normal for the northern half. Environment Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on February 15, 2007 for March through to the end of May 2007, for southern Alberta, is for above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above normal, normal and below normal precipitation. The NOAA reported March 8, 2007 that a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Nina conditions is possible during the next 2-3 months. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.



For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca