Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2008

February 2008 Precipitation

Most of the southern and central plains areas of the province recorded much below normal precipitation, with the exceptions of the Medicine Hat, Cold Lake-Lloydminster areas and an area northeast of Red Deer, which recorded above to much above normal precipitation. The mountains and foothills generally recorded below normal precipitation except for the southwestern corner of Alberta, Banff and the Edson-Hinton areas, which recorded above to much above normal precipitation. Northern Alberta recorded generally below normal to normal precipitation with the exception of much of northwestern Alberta, which recorded much above normal precipitation (Figure 1). February precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.
 


Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2007 to February 29, 2008)

Precipitation in the southern and central plains areas of the province recorded much below normal precipitation except for the Cypress Hills area south of Medicine Hat, which recorded above normal precipitation. The mountains and foothills generally recorded below normal to normal precipitation with the exception of mountains of the Waterton Park area in southwestern Alberta and one point in the Banff area, which recorded above normal precipitation. Northern Alberta recorded below normal to normal precipitation except for Fort Chipewyan and the Grande Prairie area, which recorded much below normal precipitation, and Cold Lake, which recorded much above normal precipitation (Figure 3). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in (Figure 4).


 

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2007)

Below to much below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the province (Figure 5). Above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in many mountain and foothill locations of the Banff-Pincher Creek area, in the Milk River-Cypress Hills area, and in the far north of the province that includes areas north of High Level and the Fort Chipewyan area. Some areas of the Upper Smoky and Athabasca River basins recorded normal to above normal precipitation. Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6.
 

A map of soil moisture in the province as estimated by Alberta Agriculture can be seen here .

Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on February 28, 2008 for the March through May 2008 period is for above normal precipitation throughout Alberta, except normal for southern plains areas, and below normal for the southeastern corner of Alberta. Temperatures for this period are forecast to be below normal. The long-lead forecast issued on March 1, 2008 for June through August 2008 is for above normal temperatures. Precipitation for this period is expected mostly to be above normal, except for northwestern and west central Alberta, where it is forecast to be below normal to normal. Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on February 21, 2008 for March through to the end of May 2008 is for equal chances of below normal, normal, or above normal temperatures and precipitation occuring in southern Alberta. Below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures are forecasted for the June through August 2008 period for southern Alberta. The NOAA reported February 21, 2008 that moderate La Nina conditions are likely to continue throughout March, April and May 2008, followed by weaker La Nina conditions thereafter. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.
 


For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca