Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2012

Water Supply Forecast as of March 1, 2012 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

 Revised March 22, 2012

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2012
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Actual March-September 2011 Volume as a % of Average
Lake Abraham Inflow 2,489,000 116 109-116 105 27/30* 97
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,527,000 106 89-125 77 24/41** 119
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 6,411,000 109 94-126 84 63/91 116


* Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the potential minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca