Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2002

Milk River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Much-below-average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2002 period in the Milk River basin
(Table 2a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 39 to 55 % of the median. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the Milk River at Milk River would rank 16th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95). The May 1 forecasts changed significantly from last month's forecast (increases between 2 and 13 %) due to above-normal precipitation in April. Current runoff volume forecasts for this year are 18 to 31% higher than recorded runoff volumes last summer.

The first two months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-April 2002 recorded runoff volumes being the much-below-average to below-average, ranging from 29 to 62 % of median. Preliminary data indicates that the recorded March-April volume ranks relatively low in the historical data set for Milk River and at Eastern Crossing. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 2b.

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