Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2002

North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes (for the March to September 2002 period) are forecast to be below-average in the North Saskatchewan River basin (Table 6a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 82 to 96 % of average. May 1 forecasts increased 2 to 4 % compared to last month's forecast due to above-normal precipitation in April. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 20th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95). The May 1 forecasts are 13 to 20% higher than recorded values observed over the same time period last year.

The first two months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-April 2002 recorded runoff volumes generally being the much-below-average, ranging from 31 to 118 % of average. Preliminary data indicates that the recorded March-April volume set a new historical minimum value for the period at Brazeau Reservoir. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 6b.

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