Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2002

Table 5b - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2002 - Red Deer River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Red Deer River
at Dickson Dam 		763,000* 91 69-122 52 43/84 53** 4/84
Red Deer River
at Red Deer 		938,000* 85 57-132 46 36/84 60** 27/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** Recorded 2002 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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