Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes (for the March to September 2002 period) are forecast to be below-average for the Red Deer River basin, ranging from 81 to 86 % of average (Table 5a). The May 1 forecasts are 3 to 8 % higher than last month's forecast due above-normal precipitation during April in the basin, particularly in the area between Dickson Dam and Red Deer. As a result, the percentage difference in the forecasts between Dickson Dam and Red Deer is considerably smaller this month (5 % - compared to 10 % last month). Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the Red Deer River at Red Deer would rank 36th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95). The May 1 forecasts are 24 to 29% higher than recorded values observed over the same time period last year.

The first two months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-April 2002 recorded runoff volumes being the below-average to much-below-average, ranging from 53 to 60 % of average. Preliminary data indicates that the recorded March-April volume at Dickson Dam is near the historical minimum volume ever recorded (fourth lowest). The plains area between Dickson Dam and Red Deer contributed significant runoff in April. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b.