Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2003

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2003 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2003 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 912,000* 89 75-110 69 24/85 101** 52/85
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 139,000* 80 64-104 59 21/85 97** 51/85
Spray River near Banff 283,000* 82 65-100 64 16/85 109** 61/85
Kananaskis River 330,000* 85 73-109 71 21/85 115** 69/85
Bow River at Calgary 1,949,000* 86 67-107 61 22/85 104** 54/85
Elbow River 139,000* 70 57-112 55 24/85 133** 76/85
Highwood River 349,000* 61 47-101 44 20/85 111** 61/85

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2003 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca