Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2003

Table 2b - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2003 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3
Volume as a
% of Median
Probable Range as a % of Median Reasonable Minimum as
% of Median
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2003 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing
21,500* 65 37-100 16 23/64** 141*** 48/65**
Milk River
at Milk River
35,400* 69 41-104 21 26/85 113*** 48/85
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing
38,800* 66 35-103 12 29/85 108*** 45/85

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Western Crossing data is from 1931-95

*** Recorded 2003 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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