Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2003

Milk River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Below-average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2003 period in the Milk River basin (Table 2a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 80 to 92% of the median, an increase from April's forecasts of 3 to 4%. Forecast volumes are almost four times higher than those recorded in 2001 and less than half those recorded last year. For the Milk River at Milk River, current forecasted values for the March to September 2003 period would rank 32nd lowest in 84 years of record (1912-95).

The first two months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-April 2003 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 108 to 141% of average. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 2b.

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