Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2003

Table 5b - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2003 - Red Deer River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2003 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2003 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Red Deer River
at Dickson Dam 		826,000* 99 65-126 56 50/85 196** 83/85
Red Deer River
at Red Deer 		1,015,000* 91 48-135 40 48/85 169** 74/85

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** Recorded 2003 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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