Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2003

Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes for the March 1 to September 30, 2003 period are forecast to be average to above-average for the Red Deer River basin, ranging from 104 to 109% of average (Table 5a). Current forecasts are much higher than last month's forecasts (by 44 to 46%) due to much-above-normal precipitation and runoff during April. The current forecasted volumes for the March to September 2003 period for the Red Deer River basin are 44 to 46% higher than the volumes recorded over the same time period last year and 47 to 52% higher than those recorded in 2001. Current forecasted volumes would rank 27th highest in 84-years of record (1912-95) at Red Deer.

The first month of the forecast period has been completed, with March-April 2003 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 169 to 196% of average. Runoff volume at the Dickson Dam was the second-highest on record for the March-April period. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March through September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b.

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